Casual Collectors, UNITE!

I hope everyone is happily enjoying their copies of Pokemon Legends: Z-A! If you're not, you need to go out and buy yourself a copy because it is one fun game (once you get past that incredibly long intro/tutorial sequence). But let's talk Legends: Z-A, The Pokemon Company's future VGC strategy, and how it ultimately affects the TCG. Let's rip into this one!

🗞️ ICYMI

phantasmal flames full set is out

flame on

Thanks to the Pokemon Company International, we now know what all the cards for the upcoming Phantasmal Flames set will look like, including a confirmation of the numbering.

Yes, the entire setlist has been known for quite a while now, but it's still cool to see the cards finally revealed in English.

Let's just hope and pray for a continued steady decline in prices for new product so we can actually rip some packs…

break even is 200,000 copies and that’s low (according to other people)

surprised totodile in awe of how low break even is

Former Nintendo NA employees Krysta Yang and Kit Ellis were discussing the Gen 10 leaks on their YouTube channel and talked a little bit about the budget for Z-A and how low the target for breaking even on the game was.

Now, they haven't been employed by Nintendo for a while, but if it's true that the budget for developing Z-A was around $13,000,000, then the estimated 200,000 copies to break even would represent around 1% of the units sold for Legends Arceus.

My thoughts are mixed on this one, but given the demand for better graphics and gameplay (especially when compared to the new Digimon game), this news will only make the angry mob clamoring for more angrier.

Let me know if you're playing Z-A and if not, why!

Legends: Z-A, Pokemon’s Video Game Strategy, and the Future of the TCG

The Generation 10 leaks have revealed an incredible amount of data regarding the next set of mainline games. Pokemon Wind and Water will represent the company's move to procedurally generated content, so environments, NPCs, and even Pokemon will be generated based on an algorithm instead of being manually/statically placed in the world by the developers. Think Minecraft, Pikmin 2, Binding of Isaac, and Sim City 2000 (if you don't know any of these games, don't worry, I haven't played any of them either).

This means the Pokemon Company can continue to infuse updates and make changes to the game by expanding the world continuously, adding Pokemon, regions, and even expanding the game through DLCs.

I have speculated about when the mainline releases would end. This model of releasing new games every few years and developing a region's worth of new Pokemon, while attempting to keep the gameplay fresh and updated, didn't seem tenable given how vastly improved games and game development have become since the mid-90s. And with how committed it seems the Pokemon Company is to investing in their mobile game development, and with the growing popularity of their TCG from a collectible standpoint, I have three predictions for what the franchise will do in the next 3 years.

Prediction #1 - Generation 10 Will Be the Last True Mainline Generation of the Pokemon Franchise

This is my heaviest hitting and biggest prediction. I don't believe Pokemon ever intended the games to be an endless road of continuous releases of new regions and new Pokemon. And with Wind and Waves, I think Pokemon is going to phase out generational releases of Pokemon games.

If I put myself in their product team's shoes for a second here, these are the things I would be considering…

Consideration 1: Smaller Releases of New Pokemon via DLCs

New Pokemon are great and all, but Pokemon is reaching a point in their franchise where it's becoming too difficult to remember and enjoy all the little creatures they've introduced. As enthusiastic as kids may be over new Pokemon, most of them are still gravitating to older Pokemon as their favorites.

Even from a marketing perspective, a small population of Pokemon are emphasized for merchandising and promotional purposes anyhow. There are well-established Pokemon that will continue to reign in popularity in perpetuity, so there's no need to A-B test new Pokemon to find the next one when you have plenty already.

Instead, release smaller batches of new region-exclusive Pokemon. Introduce Kanto-regionalized versions of Unova Pokemon. Introduce new islands or mini-cities that have one or two new Pokemon via DLC. Create new Legendary and Mythical Pokemon variants, similar to Origin Forme Sinnoh legendaries. There are plenty of gimmicks to lean into at this point, and without hammering the fan base into numbness with multitudes of releases, introduce these new variants a few times a year.

Consideration 2: Target Adolescents and Adults for Wind/Waves

Black/White and Black 2/White 2 are cult favorites because of the dark storyline, something most kids under the age of 12 glaze over in order to beat the bosses and finish the game.

Why not let these games breathe as games targeted for older audiences? Let the mechanics be slightly harder, more challenging so that it's more rewarding for older audiences to beat the game, with complex storytelling and a less structured experience. Pokemon should be accessible to all as a franchise, but there needs to be a clear delineation of the audiences that these games are targeted to.

Their audience has grown and matured significantly since the mid to late 90s, and yet most of their games feel childish, with undertones of themes that only older players can understand. Plus, I don't need to play through another 15-minute-long introduction to Pokemon. I already know how to take advantage of type matchups!

With that said, I thought Let's Go, Eevee/Pikachu were perfect games. An easy way to introduce Pokemon to a younger generation. The graphics, the gameplay—it's simplistic enough to teach a child under 12 to play, and introduces the fundamentals of the Pokemon franchise in a way that makes it fun without focusing heavily on the micro-strategies.

Prediction #2 - Future Competitive Pokemon Games Will Be Released Only for Mobile

The announcement of Pokemon Champions in March of 2025, with the additional announcement that 2026 VGC would be held in Champions, has confirmed that their mainline games won't host the competitive VGC scene anymore.

This is a pretty huge change, considering the large swath of lifelong competitive players and Pokemon's recognition of the wide range of age groups competing at the highest level of play with the Pokemon VGC.

But with the growing costs of Nintendo software and hardware, this move seems to acknowledge the main bottleneck for their competitive scene: accessibility.

Champions being free to play on a variety of platforms and integrating with Pokemon Home means that anyone—and I mean literally anyone—can join the competitive scene. You don't need a mainline game to play, nor are you required to grind out the game to get items and Pokemon. You can open up your Pokemon GO app, move Pokemon to Home, and then play them in Champions.

The main question here is: will Pokemon standardize IVs/EVs? Will natures still matter? How are Natures going to be incorporated into Pokemon GO?

There are questions for the competitive scene that will only be answered once Champions is officially demo'd and released, but rest assured, the company's dedication to their competitive scene will not waver.

Prediction #3 - The Trading Card Game Will Split Between a Competitive Card Game and a Collectible Card Game

Pokemon TCG is going to look a lot like Panini/Topps. And I don't think that's a bad thing, necessarily.

Pokemon's competitive TCG scene is still chugging along, with players from around the world battling it out with their rectangular, occasionally shiny cardboard. But my bleary-eyed observations of the reprints and restocks that are happening, along with the shifts in meta decks and cards, has made something clear to me: Pokemon is printing for the collector while attempting to print the cards their competitive players need to be relevant.

Take Prismatic Evolutions, for example. It's a largely non-meta set, with the only draw being the collectibility of the top hits in the set. However, every restock has some kind of Prismatic Evolutions in it. And with Twilight Masquerade ETBs being grouped into that reprint, the amount of 151 that continues to hit shelves, and sleeved boosters of Stellar Crown and Surging Sparks hitting shelves consistently, while there's been hardly any Shrouded Fable truly restocking, it just goes to show where their emphasis remains.

That's why these big mainline sets, like Mega Evolutions, Destined Rivals, and Journey Together, that introduce new mechanics or card types will restock over and over again in a wide variety of products, while these collector sets will be limited to ETBs, Sleeved Boosters, and booster bundles.

Honestly, I think it's happening already. But I think the Pokemon Company will continue to lean into this split even more going forward.

Nothing in the world means more to me than the Pokemon games. I longed to play them as a kid, speed-ran them in high school and college using online emulators, and started to collect the physical games and the required consoles as an adult. And now, as I try to spark the same joy and love for the franchise in my kids, I can't help but be solely focused on how Pokemon handles the future of the franchise beyond Generation 10.

Which is why these leaks and upcoming releases have me excited about the future of the franchise. They have maintained the "collect them all" and "greatest trainer ever" soul of the franchise in all the games they have ever released, and as long as every game continues along this trend, without ultimately succumbing to the greed of "pay-to-play" (ahem, looking at you Pokemon TCG Pocket…), then there's no doubt the franchise will continue to live on into future generations.

👀 “Should I buy it or not” Card of the week

AAAHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!

such good value

It may be higher in price if it was a special illustration rare, especially if there was some texturing to the color pops, but the price is low for what could turn out to be the best illustration rare of the set. (Misty's Psyduck is the current leader in the clubhouse and the favorite for best IR).

Look for a clean copy, grade it, and hold it for a while. I think this one is a winner from Destined Rivals, raw or in a PSA 10.

🕶️ Singles to watch

[List of three cards that are worth watching and buying soon]

SAUR

PLZ KEEP TRENDING DOWNWARD THX

Mega Evolution isn't even a month old, but doesn't it feel like most people have moved on from the set already?

With so many people stashing Mega Evolution products right now, we haven't seen a massive influx of available copies yet, but given the hype around the other two huge SIRs from the set (Mega Lucario and Mega Gardevoir), I can see this card continuing its downward price trend and settling at around $150 by the time 2026 rolls around. It's too early to start picking up PSA 10s, so avoid that for a while, and raw copies should continue to trend downward, so hold off on buying those for now too.

MENCE

even lower, cmon…

S-tier pose, S-tier Pokemon, and has generally held its value since release.

I love everything about this card, but given how easy the card is to pull and how quickly people have moved on from Journey Together, if the Pokemon Company decides to print a massive quantity of Journey Together in the near future, this card could spiral downward in price. I'd buy the PSA 10 now, but just wait if you're looking to pick up a raw copy…

BULBA

The Stellar Crown Bulbasaur IR is top-tier as far as illustration rares go. That raw price is still quite high and slowly trending upward, but the PSA 10 is starting to dip in price. With the popularity of the Squirtle IR from the same set, the Bulbasaur will always play second fiddle, but come here, let me tell you a secret…

…this card is better.

Don't buy a raw copy; just head straight to eBay or a local card show/shop and buy the PSA 10. You won't regret it.

❓ Question of the week

Who is your Legends: Z-A starter: Tepig, Chikorita, or Totodile?

Ditto’s Weird Merchandise Role 🟣

In official Pokémon merchandise lines, Ditto often appears transformed into other Pokémon — but with its own goofy face. This “Ditto as ___” gimmick became a long-running fan favorite for plushies and promos.

Catch deals. Pull grails.

TCG POCKET MONEY

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